Michael Lewis' book Moneyball is being made into a film due out this fall.
While I haven't read the book, I'm familiar with the premise. One of the things discussed in the book is how statistics such as Batting Average (BA) and Earned Run Average (ERA), as well as unit stats (Runs, Hits, RBI's, etc...) are useless and meaningless. They're the old way of doing things, and not the best judge of talent.
I can't possibly agree any more. Fuck.
I'm a guy who loves statistics. I use a plethora of them everyday at work to try and gain some insight into sales. Maybe it's the baseball fan in me, but I've become obsessed with them, as well as the need to find one all-incomposing stat that perfectly describes someone's effectiveness.
I hate BA & ERA. They simply don't make any sense if you're looking to decide who has the best impact at winning ball games. Let's talk about hitting first... BA is simply hits/at bats. It doesn't count at bats that end in a walk... Last time I fucking checked, a runner making it to first would count as a run if he made it home! It also doesn't differentiate between singles and extra base hits.
Then there's Slugging Percentage (SLG). SLG is total bases / at bats. So basically if you hit a triple your SLG is 3.00. Now we`re starting to get somewhere and make some damn sense. However, it also does not include walks.
But there's also something called On Base Percentage (OBS). Finally, a stat that doesn't give a shit how you get on base, just as long as you do. In other words, it counts walks.
So basically we have 3 hitting stats here, 2 of them make sense, the other is a useless piece of shit. One can judge a power hitter or RBI man by his SLG. One could judge a lead off man or a bottom of the order hitter by his OBS... Batting Average seems to be some retarded compromise between the two that clearly isn't a compromise at all... If only there was a way to combine everything that mattered to hitting into one stat so we could clearly determine how effective a player was...
Shit, there already is one?
Oh yeah, it's OPS (On base + Slugging). It's exactly what it sounds like, combining how many times you get on base plus how many fucking bases you get then dividing it by at bats. Sounds perfect right?
Why the hell isn't that THE stat used first and foremost?
My guess is because someone only stated recording it in 1984, meaning we wouldn't be able to compare A-Rod to Mickey Mantle. I think MLB needs to start fucking off. I've seen it in recent years creep into the box stats on televised games, but it's rarely mentioned.
Now what about pitching? ERA is slightly less shitty than BA, but still misses out on a big factor. That is, of course, how did those runners that they allowed to score get on base in the first place?
This is where WHIP comes in handy. Walks + Hits / Innings pitched. I personally like the combination of the two, unfortunately there's no stat that combines them.
Basically, everyone should read Moneyball. Including me
